I was having an interesting chat with a
Warminster buy to let landlord the other day when the subject of size of
households came up in conversation. For
those of you who read my Brexit article published on the morning after the
referendum, one of the reasons on why I thought the Warminster property market would,
in the medium to long term, be OK, was the fact that the size of households in
the 21st Century was getting smaller – which would create demand for
Warminster Property and therefore keep property prices from dropping.
Looking at the stats going back to the
early 1960’s, when the average number of people in a home was exactly 3, it has
steadily over the years dropped by a fifth to today’s figure of 2.4 people per
household. Doesn’t sound a lot, but if the population remained at the same
level for the next 50 years and the we had the same 20% drop in household size,
the UK would need to build an additional 5.28 million properties ( or 105,769
per year) .. When you consider the Country is only building 139,800 properties
a year ... it doesn’t leave much for people living longer and immigration.
Looking closer to home...
In the Wiltshire Council area, the average
number of occupants per household is 2.4
people
When we look at the current picture
nationally and split it down into tenure types (i.e. owned, council houses and
private renting, a fascinating picture appears.
The vast majority of homeowners who
don’t have a mortgage are occupied by one or two people (81% in fact), although
this can be explained as residents
being older, with some members of the family having moved out, or a pensioner
living alone. People living on their own
are more likely to live in a Council house (43%) and the largest households
(those with 4 or more people living in them are homeowners with a mortgage –
but again, that can be explained as homeowners with families tend to need a
mortgage to buy. What surprised me was the even spread of private rented
households and how that sector of population are so evenly spread across the
occupant range – in fact that sector is the closest to the national average,
even though they only represent a sixth of the population.
When
we look at the Wiltshire Council figures for all tenures (Owned, Council and
Private Rented) a slightly different picture appears...
|
1 person
households in Warminster
|
2 person
households in Warminster
|
3 person
households In Warminster
|
4 person
households in Warminster
|
5+ person
households in Warminster
|
|
26.70%
|
38.23%
|
15.45%
|
13.73%
|
5.88%
|
But it gets even more interesting when we
focus on just private rental properties in Warminster, as it is the rental
market in Warminster that really fascinates me. When I analysed those Wiltshire Council
private rental household composition figures, a slightly different picture
appears. Of the 22,903 Private rental properties in the Wiltshire Council area,
·
29.9%
of Private Rental Properties are 1 person Households
·
36.1%
of Private Rental Properties are 2 person Households
·
17.1%
of Private Rental Properties are 3 person Households
·
11.6%
of Private Rental Properties are 4 person Households
·
5.1%
of Private Rental Properties are 5+ person Households
As you can see, Warminster is not too dissimilar from the
national picture but there is story to tell. If you are considering future buy
to let purchases in the coming 12 to 18 months, I would seriously consider
looking at 2 and 3 bedroom houses in Warminster. Even with the numbers stated, there are simply not
enough 2 and 3 bedroom houses to meet the demand. They have to be in the right part of Warminster and priced
realistically, but they will always let and when you need to sell, irrespective
of market conditions at the time, will always be the target of buyers.
