38.2% Of Warminster Homes Are Two Person Households

I was having an interesting chat with a Warminster buy to let landlord the other day when the subject of size of households came up in conversation.  For those of you who read my Brexit article published on the morning after the referendum, one of the reasons on why I thought the Warminster property market would, in the medium to long term, be OK, was the fact that the size of households in the 21^st Century was getting smaller – which would create demand for Warminster Property and therefore keep property prices from dropping.

Looking at the stats going back to the early 1960’s, when the average number of people in a home was exactly 3, it has steadily over the years dropped by a fifth to today’s figure of 2.4 people per household. Doesn’t sound a lot, but if the population remained at the same level for the next 50 years and the we had the same 20% drop in household size, the UK would need to build an additional 5.28 million properties ( or 105,769 per year) .. When you consider the Country is only building 139,800 properties a year ... it doesn’t leave much for people living longer and immigration. Looking closer to home...

In the Wiltshire Council area, the average

number of occupants per household is 2.4 people

When we look at the current picture nationally and split it down into tenure types (i.e. owned, council houses and private renting, a fascinating picture appears.

The vast majority of homeowners who don’t have a mortgage are occupied by one or two people (81% in fact), although this can be explained as residents being older, with some members of the family having moved out, or a pensioner living alone.  People living on their own are more likely to live in a Council house (43%) and the largest households (those with 4 or more people living in them are homeowners with a mortgage – but again, that can be explained as homeowners with families tend to need a mortgage to buy. What surprised me was the even spread of private rented households and how that sector of population are so evenly spread across the occupant range – in fact that sector is the closest to the national average, even though they only represent a sixth of the population.

When we look at the Wiltshire Council figures for all tenures (Owned, Council and Private Rented) a slightly different picture appears...

1 person households in Warminster	2 person households in Warminster	3 person households In Warminster	4 person households in Warminster	5+ person households in Warminster
26.70%	38.23%	15.45%	13.73%	5.88%

But it gets even more interesting when we focus on just private rental properties in Warminster, as it is the rental market in Warminster that really fascinates me. When I analysed those Wiltshire Council private rental household composition figures, a slightly different picture appears. Of the 22,903 Private rental properties in the Wiltshire Council area,

·         29.9% of Private Rental Properties are 1 person Households

·         36.1% of Private Rental Properties are 2 person Households

·         17.1% of Private Rental Properties are 3 person Households

·         11.6% of Private Rental Properties are 4 person Households

·         5.1% of Private Rental Properties are 5+ person Households

As you can see, Warminster is not too dissimilar from the national picture but there is story to tell. If you are considering future buy to let purchases in the coming 12 to 18 months, I would seriously consider looking at 2 and 3 bedroom houses in Warminster. Even with the numbers stated, there are simply not enough 2 and 3 bedroom houses to meet the demand. They have to be in the right part of Warminster and priced realistically, but they will always let and when you need to sell, irrespective of market conditions at the time, will always be the target of buyers. 

The Warminster Love Affair with its 8,000 Terraced Houses

Call me old fashioned, but I do like the terraced house.   In fact, I have done some research that I hope you will find of interest my Warminster property market blog reading friends!

In architecture terms, a terraced or townhouse is a style of housing in use since the late 1600’s in the UK, where a row of symmetrical / identical houses share their side walls. The first terraced houses were actually built by a French man, Monsieur Barbon around St. Paul’s Cathedral within the rebuilding process after the Great Fire of London in 1666.  Interestingly, it was the French that invented the terraced house around 1610-15 in the Le Marais district of Paris with its planned squares and properties with identical facades. However, it was the 1730’s in the UK, that the terraced/townhouse came into its own in London and of course in Bath with the impressive Royal Crescent.

However, we are in Warminster, not Bath, so the majority of our Warminster terraced houses were built in the Victorian era.  Built on the back of the Industrial Revolution, with people flooding into the towns and cities for work in Victorian times, the terraced house offered decent livable accommodation away from the slums. An interesting fact is that the majority of Victorian Warminster terraced houses are based on standard design of a ‘posh’ front room, a back room (where the family lived day to day) and scullery off that.  Off the scullery, a door to a rear yard, whilst upstairs, three bedrooms (the third straight off the second).  Interestingly, the law was changed in 1875 with the Public Health Act and each house had to have 108ft of livable space per main room, running water, it’s own outside toilet and rear access to allow the toilet waste to be collected (they didn’t have public sewers in those days in Warminster – well not at least where these ‘workers’ terraced houses were built).

It was the 1960’s and 70’s where inside toilets and bathrooms were installed (often in that third bedroom or an extension off the scullery) and gas central heating in the 1980’s and replacement Upvc double glazing ever since.

Looking at the make up of all the properties in Warminster, some very interesting numbers appear.  Of the 8,083 properties in Warminster …

2,180 are Detached properties (26.9%)

2,374 are Semi Detached properties (33.8%)

1,939 are Terraced / Town House properties (23.9%)

1,164 are Apartment/ Flat’s (14.4%)

And quite noteworthy, there are 66 mobile homes, representing 0.8% of all property in Warminster. 

When it comes to values, the average price paid for a Warminster terraced house in 1995 was £53,860 and the latest set of figures released by the land Registry states that today that figure stands at £164,300, a rise of 205% - not bad when you consider detached properties in Warminster in the same time frame have only risen by 106%.

But then a lot of buy to let landlords and first time buyers I speak to think the Victorian terraced house is expensive to maintain.  I recently read a report from English Heritage that stated maintaining a typical Victorian terraced house over thirty years is around sixty percent cheaper than building and maintaining a modern house- which is quite fascinating don’t you think!

Don’t dismiss the humble terraced house – especially in Warminster!

93.4% of Warminster Homeowners are over 35 - The affect of their Brexit vote on the Warminster Property Market

Well it’s been 4 weeks since the Referendum vote and we have had a chance to reflect on the momentous decision that the British public took. Many of you read the article I wrote on the morning of the results. I had gone to bed the night before with a draft of my Remain article nicely all but finished, to be presented, at just after 5am, with the declaration by the BBC saying we were leaving the EU. I don’t think any of us were expecting that.

If you want to read a copy of that original Post Brexit blog post, please scroll back to late June to find it. In this article I would like to take my thoughts on from that initial article and now start to see the clearer picture as the dust settles on the UK, but more importantly, the Warminster Property Market.

In case you weren’t aware, the residents of the Wiltshire County Council area went against the National mood and voted as follows ..

Wiltshire County Council        Remain Votes              137,258           (47.5% of the vote)

Wiltshire County Council        Leave Votes                 151,637           (52.5% of the vote)

Wiltshire County Council Turnout      78.8%

I have been reading there is some evidence to indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote Remain than their parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's techniques may have been widely criticised, following them getting both the 2010 General Election and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many surveys seem to suggest there was a relationship between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.

Interestingly, the average age of a Warminster resident is 40.8 years old, which is above the national average of 39.3, which might go someway to back up the way Warminster voted? What I do know is that putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has, and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the British property market needs is uncertainty (because as with previous episodes of uncertainty in the UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).

Interestingly, when we look at the Home-ownership rates in the Wiltshire County Council area, of the 132,545 properties that are owned in the Wiltshire County Council area (Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the age range paints a noteworthy picture.

Age 16 to 34 homeowners      8,651    or       6.5%  (Nationally 9.6%)

Age 35 to 49 homeowners    36,988    or     27.9%  (Nationally 29.2%)

Age 50 to 64 homeowners    43,490    or     32.8%  (Nationally 30.7%)

Aged 65+ homeowners         43,416    or     32.7%  (Nationally 30.5%)

So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of older homeowners, you might think all the Wiltshire County Council area homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and younger people would vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy?

But there's a risk in oversimplifying this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on the way the various parts of the UK voted.

So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20 somethings backed ‘Remain’; because many didn't!

.. and the Warminster Property Market – well read my original article and you can make your own mind up. 

Planning for 203 houses in Warminster Approved

Last month you may have read my blog post relating to the West Warminster Urban Extension and the Master Plan gaining approval. Further to this this Wiltshire County Council have, predictably, approved planning for 203 houses, as submitted by Redrow Homes on the site just off St Andrews road. Of the 203 homes 61 are set to be affordable houses.

It is without doubt that residents are concerned. Construction vehicles will be entering the site via the cul-de-sac and ultimately will form access to the new homes. So what will this mean for the home owners and house prices here? Well only time will tell but I would expect to see a a few of these properties on the market in the coming months.

In my opinion the very reason the development has been approved is because there is not enough housing available. In summary demand is high, supply is limited, borrowing is cheap (interest rates may come down to 0.25% tomorrow) and property in St Andrews road is still desirable.

Why This Two bed Warminster Porperty Sold In 24 Hours and went up £89,000 In Just Over Two Years!

With an asking price £225,000 Trinity Cottage on Vicarage Street, Warminster is in the top bracket for two bedroom  properties in town. However there is good reason why it was sold subject to contract within 24 hours of Northwood marketing it.

Previously listed for sale in 2014 the cottage sold for £136,000 but required (in estate agent terms) a degree of modernising.

So lets take a look at the before and after shots in this impressive property makeover......

Before

After

Before

After

Before

After

Before

After

Before

After

Clearly the current vendors have spent considerably on the cottage in a market that has been buoyant, couple that with good taste, and professional photography then this is proof demand is certainly there.

You can see the property listing on Rightmove HERE

Population in the Wiltshire Council area set to rise to 535,600 by 2036. What does this mean for the Warminster property market?

Warminster faces a predicament. The population is growing and the provision of new housing isn’t keeping up. With the average age of a Warminster person being 40.8 years (compared to the South West average of 41.6 years old and the national average of 39.4 years of age), the population of Warminster is growing at an alarming rate. This is due to an amalgamation of longer life expectancy, a fairly high birth rate (compared to previous decades) and high net immigration, all of which contribute to housing shortages and burgeoning house prices.

My colleagues work closely with Durham University and they have kindly produced some statistics specifically for the Wiltshire Council area. Known as the UK’s leading authority for such statistics, their population projections make some startling reading…

For the Wiltshire Council area ... these are the statistics and future forecasts

2016 population           489,784

2021 population           503,925

2026 population           515,951

2031 population           526,169

2036 population           535,633

The normal ratio of people to property is 2 to 1 in the UK, which therefore means...

We need just over 23,000 additional new properties to be built

in the Wiltshire Council area over the next 20 years.

Whilst focusing on population growth does not tackle the housing crisis in the short term in Warminster, it has a fundamental role to play in long-term housing development and strategy in the town. The rise of Warminster property values over the last six years since the credit crunch are primarily a result of a lack of properties coming onto the market, a lack of new properties being built in the town and rising demand (especially from landlords looking to buy property to rent them out to the growing number of people wanting to live in Warminster but can’t buy or rent from the Council).

Although many are talking about the need to improve supply (i.e. the building of new properties), the issue of accumulative demand from population growth is often overlooked. Nationally, the proportion of 25-34 year olds who own their own home has dropped dramatically from 66.7% in 1987 to 43.8% in 2014, whilst 78.2% of over 65s own their own home. Longer life expectancy mean houses remain in the same hands for longer.

The swift population growth over the last thirty years provides more competition for the young than for mature population.  It might surprise some people that 98% of all the land in the UK is either industrial, commercial or agricultural, with only two percent being used for housing, which means one could propose expanding supply to meet a expanding population by building on green belt – that most Politian’s haven’t got the stomach to tackle, especially in the Tory’ strongholds of the South of England, where the demand is the greatest. People mention brownfield sites, but recent research suggests there aren’t as many sites to build on, especially in Warminster that could accommodate 23,000 properties in the next 20 years.

In the short to medium term, demand for a roof over of one’s head will continue to grow in Warminster (and the country as a whole). In the short term, that demand can only be met from the private rental sector (which is good news for homeowners and landlords alike as that keeps house prices higher).

In the long term though, local and national Government and the UK population as a whole, need to realise these additional millions of people over the next 20 years need to live somewhere. Only once this issue starts to get addressed, in terms of extra properties being built in a sustainable and environmentally friendly way, can we all help create a socially ecological prosperous future for everyone

3 Bedroom Property In Warminster with 4.86% Yield

The market for two and three bedroom houses in Warminster really seems to be under pressure at the moment with very few properties available they are in high demanad. This Three Bedroom home on St Andres road has just come on with Cooper and Tanner. The property looks to be presented very well and offers a delightful garden.

I cant see this property being on for very long as in my opinion would be a great rental property with an estimated 4.86% yield thats assuming it sells for full asking price and achieves £800pcm. Equally this would make a great family home.

You can see the full listing on Rigthmove HERE