Warminster
faces a predicament. The population is growing and the provision of new housing
isn’t keeping up. With the average age of a Warminster person being 40.8 years
(compared to the South West average of 41.6 years old and the national average
of 39.4 years of age), the population of Warminster is growing at an alarming
rate. This is due to an amalgamation of longer life expectancy, a fairly high
birth rate (compared to previous decades) and high net immigration, all of
which contribute to housing shortages and burgeoning house prices.
My
colleagues work closely with Durham University and they have kindly produced
some statistics specifically for the Wiltshire Council area. Known as the UK’s
leading authority for such statistics, their population projections make some
startling reading…
For
the Wiltshire Council area ... these are the statistics and future forecasts
2016 population 489,784
2021 population 503,925
2026 population 515,951
2031 population 526,169
2036 population 535,633
The
normal ratio of people to property is 2 to 1 in the UK, which therefore means...
We need just over 23,000 additional new properties
to be built
in the Wiltshire Council area over the
next 20 years.
Whilst
focusing on population growth does not tackle the housing crisis in the short
term in Warminster, it has a fundamental role to play in long-term housing development
and strategy in the town. The rise of Warminster property values over the last
six years since the credit crunch are primarily a result of a lack of
properties coming onto the market, a lack of new properties being built in the town
and rising demand (especially from landlords looking to buy property to rent
them out to the growing number of people wanting to live in Warminster but can’t
buy or rent from the Council).
Although
many are talking about the need to improve supply (i.e. the building of new
properties), the issue of accumulative demand from population growth is often overlooked.
Nationally, the proportion of 25-34 year olds who own their own home has
dropped dramatically from 66.7% in 1987 to 43.8% in 2014, whilst 78.2% of over
65s own their own home. Longer life expectancy mean houses remain in the same
hands for longer.
The
swift population growth over the last thirty years provides more competition
for the young than for mature population.
It might surprise some people that 98% of all the land in the UK is either
industrial, commercial or agricultural, with only two percent being used for
housing, which means one could propose expanding supply to meet a expanding
population by building on green belt – that most Politian’s haven’t got the stomach
to tackle, especially in the Tory’ strongholds of the South of England, where
the demand is the greatest. People mention brownfield sites, but recent
research suggests there aren’t as many sites to build on, especially in Warminster
that could accommodate 23,000 properties in the next 20 years.
In
the short to medium term, demand for a roof over of one’s head will continue to
grow in Warminster (and the country as a whole). In the short term, that demand
can only be met from the private rental sector (which is good news for
homeowners and landlords alike as that keeps house prices higher).
In
the long term though, local and national Government and the UK population as a
whole, need to realise these additional millions of people over the next 20
years need to live somewhere. Only once this issue starts to get addressed, in terms
of extra properties being built in a sustainable and environmentally friendly
way, can we all help create a socially ecological prosperous future for everyone
