Population in the Wiltshire Council area set to rise to 535,600 by 2036. What does this mean for the Warminster property market?

Warminster faces a predicament. The population is growing and the provision of new housing isn’t keeping up. With the average age of a Warminster person being 40.8 years (compared to the South West average of 41.6 years old and the national average of 39.4 years of age), the population of Warminster is growing at an alarming rate. This is due to an amalgamation of longer life expectancy, a fairly high birth rate (compared to previous decades) and high net immigration, all of which contribute to housing shortages and burgeoning house prices.

My colleagues work closely with Durham University and they have kindly produced some statistics specifically for the Wiltshire Council area. Known as the UK’s leading authority for such statistics, their population projections make some startling reading…

For the Wiltshire Council area ... these are the statistics and future forecasts

2016 population           489,784

2021 population           503,925

2026 population           515,951

2031 population           526,169

2036 population           535,633

The normal ratio of people to property is 2 to 1 in the UK, which therefore means...

We need just over 23,000 additional new properties to be built

in the Wiltshire Council area over the next 20 years.

Whilst focusing on population growth does not tackle the housing crisis in the short term in Warminster, it has a fundamental role to play in long-term housing development and strategy in the town. The rise of Warminster property values over the last six years since the credit crunch are primarily a result of a lack of properties coming onto the market, a lack of new properties being built in the town and rising demand (especially from landlords looking to buy property to rent them out to the growing number of people wanting to live in Warminster but can’t buy or rent from the Council).

Although many are talking about the need to improve supply (i.e. the building of new properties), the issue of accumulative demand from population growth is often overlooked. Nationally, the proportion of 25-34 year olds who own their own home has dropped dramatically from 66.7% in 1987 to 43.8% in 2014, whilst 78.2% of over 65s own their own home. Longer life expectancy mean houses remain in the same hands for longer.

The swift population growth over the last thirty years provides more competition for the young than for mature population.  It might surprise some people that 98% of all the land in the UK is either industrial, commercial or agricultural, with only two percent being used for housing, which means one could propose expanding supply to meet a expanding population by building on green belt – that most Politian’s haven’t got the stomach to tackle, especially in the Tory’ strongholds of the South of England, where the demand is the greatest. People mention brownfield sites, but recent research suggests there aren’t as many sites to build on, especially in Warminster that could accommodate 23,000 properties in the next 20 years.

In the short to medium term, demand for a roof over of one’s head will continue to grow in Warminster (and the country as a whole). In the short term, that demand can only be met from the private rental sector (which is good news for homeowners and landlords alike as that keeps house prices higher).

In the long term though, local and national Government and the UK population as a whole, need to realise these additional millions of people over the next 20 years need to live somewhere. Only once this issue starts to get addressed, in terms of extra properties being built in a sustainable and environmentally friendly way, can we all help create a socially ecological prosperous future for everyone

3 Bedroom Property In Warminster with 4.86% Yield

The market for two and three bedroom houses in Warminster really seems to be under pressure at the moment with very few properties available they are in high demanad. This Three Bedroom home on St Andres road has just come on with Cooper and Tanner. The property looks to be presented very well and offers a delightful garden.

I cant see this property being on for very long as in my opinion would be a great rental property with an estimated 4.86% yield thats assuming it sells for full asking price and achieves £800pcm. Equally this would make a great family home.

You can see the full listing on Rigthmove HERE

When Is The Best Time To Sell My Property In Warminster?

I had a homeowner from Plants Green email me the other day. She said she had been following my blog (the Warminster Property Market Blog) and wanted to pick my brain on when is the best time of the year to sell a property. Trying to calculate the best time to put your Warminster property on the market can often seem something akin to witchcraft and, whilst I would agree that there are particular times of the year that can prove more productive than others, there are plenty of factors that need to be taken into consideration.

Even if you are putting your property on the market, you don’t know how long it will take to find a buyer - no crystal ball to help with that one. At the moment, the latest set of figures for all estate agents in Warminster, show the average length of time it takes to find a buyer for any Warminster property is as follows ..

Detached                    176 days

Semi                              82 days

Terraced                       50 days

Flat                                74 days

Overall average          126 days

If we roll the clock back to January 2016, the overall average time it took to find a buyer (again using data from all of the Warminster Estate Agents) was 118 days.

So, on the face of it, things have haven’t improved over the last six months or so. But, when I looked at the data going back to 2008, the average length of time it takes to sell a property usually drops between January and the Summer months, for it to rise on the run up to Christmas. For example ..

Winter 2008 - 133 days           Summer 2008  - 108 days

and in more recent times …

Winter 2013 - 179 days           Summer 2013  - 169 days

Winter 2014 - 151 days           Summer 2014  -   93 days

Winter 2015 - 117 days           Summer 2015  -   91 days

           

Coming back to the present, even if you placed your property on the market today in Warminster, if it takes you on average eighteen weeks to find a buyer, then you can expect solicitors and the chain to take an additional eight and twelve weeks after that, before you move. It comes down to personal choice as to when you place your property on the market. Children often affect the decision. On one side you might delay putting that for sale board in your front garden so you can move in the summer school holidays, but on the other side, you might want to move sooner to be in the catchment area of a preferred school, in plenty of time for the next academic year?

There are times of the year when it's better to sell, and times when waiting a little longer can pay off in the long run. In a nutshell, I would say this is the way of the seasons ..

WHEN THE MARKET?

Spring: Customarily there are more house-buyers as the Daffodils show themselves

Summer: Sellers may miss out on house-buyers being on holiday

Autumn: The enthusiasm for buying homes returns

Winter: Interest diminishes as festive period looms 

What this means to buyers and landlord investors is that they often pick up a bargain in later months of the year, as there is less competition from owner occupiers. So, whilst there are better months to achieve a quicker sale, the only piece of advice I can give to every home  owner and landlord in Warminster, is do the right thing for yourself, do your homework and buy (and sell) with both your head as well as your heart.

Barton Mews Warminster - A Private Development Of Four, Four Bedroom Luxury Homes

I've admired the properties that Adam Jones of Custom Built has been developing for some time now. I recently met Adam and arranged to go and have a look at the his latest project, Barton Mews in Warminster, designed by himself and E10 architects.

Unless you live on Victoria Road and walked past the entrance to this development on a regular basis you'd be forgiven for not knowing that these four luxury homes were there. The site really is very secluded, nestled just off Victoria Road behind a set of automated gates.

The two properties I visited are in the final fix stages and are very attractive. The green oak cladding and grey slate roof naturally draws the eye, coupled with the grey aluminum and hand made bricks these feel like barn conversions.

At nearly 3000 square feet these are substantial properties,  given their size they're are not overbearing but very welcoming...

Internally at ground level the gas fired underfloor heating means the walls are uncluttered with sleek lines. The rest of the ground floor is set to be finished to a very high standard with bi-fold aluminium doors leading out form the living room, which also features a log burning stove and a rather impressive full height ceiling. As expected there's a large snug or office as well as a downstairs WC and utility room.

To quote Jonna Lewie "You'll always find me in the kitchen at parties"... well in 1978 when that song came out he was ahead of his time! Modern kitchens really are the heart of a home and at over 30ft long  with aluminium bi-fold doors the room is impressive. Finished with high quality stone worktops, an island and enough space for a large table and sofa these very social kitchens will be the envy of many.

As you head upstairs the gallery style landing separates the property nicely, as you would expect the bathrooms are spacious and finished to an exceptional standard, its no accident that the master bedroom and en-suite are over the double garage either. Designing the homes in this way ensures the privacy of the whole family and makes the most of footprint of the plot.

The double garage with automated up and over doors mean there is plenty of room for storage and vehicles. I can only imagine how the gardens and grounds will look once landscaped.

All four properties were marketed by Cooper and Tanner and unsurprisingly sold in a heartbeat. So keep you eye out for future Custom Built developments.

View the original listing by clicking HERE

Visit the Custom Built website HERE

Visit E10 Architects website HERE

52.5% of West Wiltshire Voters voted to leave the EU – What now for the 6398 Warminster Landlords and Homeowners?

It’s 5.50am as I start to type this article and David Dimbleby has just announced the UK will be leaving the EU as the final votes are counted. As most of the polls suggested a Remain Vote, it came as a surprise to most people, including the City. The Pound has dropped 6% this morning after the City Whiz kids got their predictions wrong, and MP’s from the Remain camp are using words like “challenging times ahead”.

.. and now the vote has been made .. what next for the 4927 Warminster homeowners especially the 2321 of those Warminster homeowners with a mortgage?

The Chancellor in the campaign suggested property prices would drop by 18%. Using Treasury estimates, their method of calculating this was tenuous at best, but focused around the abrupt and hasty increase in UK interest rates, which in turn would raise the cost of mortgages, and therefore lower demand for property, causing a drop in property prices.… and I would say, yes .. that will probably happen.

Warminster Property Values

Warminster property values will probably go through a period of re-adjustment in the coming 12 to 18 months – but a reported drop in house prices by 18% - I am sorry I find that a little pessimistic and believe that figure was rhetoric to get homeowners and landlords to vote in a particular way. But the UK property market is quite a monster.

Since the last In/Out EU Referendum in June 1975,

property values in Warminster have risen by 1991.1%

(That isn’t a typo) and whilst property prices did drop nationally by 18.7% between the peak of 2007 and bottom of the market in 2009, when one compares property values today in the country, compared to that all-time high of 2007, (the period before the financial crisis of the Credit Crunch of 2008/9) .. they are still up 10.14% higher.

Another Credit Crunch?

And so, notwithstanding the Credit Crunch, the worst global economic outlook since the 1930s and the recession it brought us, a matter of a few years later, the Government were panicking in 2012/3/4 that the housing market was a runaway train.

Now the same Credit Crunch doom-mongers and Sooth-Sayers that predicted soup kitchens in 2008/9 are predicting Brexit meltdown. Bad news sells newspapers. Stock markets may rise, stock markets may fall, yet the British public continued to buy property in 2009/10 and beyond. Aspiring first time buyers and buy to let landlords dusted themselves down, took a deep breath and carried on buying… because us Brit’s love our Bricks and Mortar .. we need a roof over our head.

However, as mentioned previously, if the value of the pound drops, in the past UK Interest Rates have risen to reverse that drop. However, whilst a cheaper pound will make your pint of Sangria a little more expensive on your Spanish holiday this year and make your brand new BMW pricer .. it will make British export cheaper! Which is great for the economy.

Interest rates

… and what of interest rates? Since 2009, interest rates have been at 0.5% and lots of people have become accustomed to those sorts of levels. So what if interest rates rise .. end of the world? Interest rates in the 1986/88 property boom were on average 9.25%, the 1990’s they were on average around 6.5% and uber-boom years (when UK property values were rising by 20% a year for three or four straight years across the UK) .. 4.5%. Many of you reading this who are in their 50’s and older will remember interest rates at 15%.

But I suspect interest rates won’t rise that much anyway, as Matt Carney (Chief of the Bank Of England) knows, raising interest rates causes deflation – which is the last thing the British economy needs at the moment. In fact they have been printing money (aka Quantitative Easing) for the last few years (which causes inflation) to the tune of £375bn a month. A bit of inflation because the pound has slipped on the money markets (not too much mind you) might be a good thing?

.. because whilst property values might drop in the country, they will bounce back. It’s only a paper loss.. because it only becomes real if you sell. And if you have to sell, again as most people move up market when they sell, whilst your property might have dropped by 5% or 10%, the one you want to buy would have dropped by the same 5% to 10% .. and here is the best part – (and work your sums out) you would actually be better off because the more expensive property you would be purchasing would have come down in value (in actual pound notes) more than the one you are selling.

The landlords of the 1,471 Warminster buy to let properties have nothing to fear neither, nor do the 3697 tenants living in their properties.

Buy to let is a long term investment. I think there might even be some buy to let bargains in the coming months as some people, irrespective of evidence, panic.  Even if we pull up the drawbridge at Dover and immigration stopped today, the British population will still increase at a rate that will exceed the current property building level. Britain is building 139,600 properties a year, but needs according to the eminent ‘Barker Review of Housing Supply Report’, to build about 250,000 properties a year to even stand still, and as the birth rate is increasing, the population is living longer and just under a quarter of all UK households now are occupied by a single person demand is only going up whilst supply is stifled. Greater demand than supply equals higher prices. That is definitely a fact.

So, what will happen next?

Well, there are many challenges ahead. The country has spoken and we are now in unchartered territory – but we have been through a couple of World Wars, an Oil Crisis, Black Monday, Black Wednesday, 15% interest rates and a Credit Crunch … and we survived!

And the value of your Warminster property? It might have a short term wobble… but in the long term -it’s safe as houses regardless.

4.89% Projected Yield On This Central Warminster Property

This 3 bedroom property is being marketed by Cooper and Tanner. Situated in a popular private location this would make a fantastic buy to let investment. Benefiting from gated access, allocated parking and being close to the town center positions it well for tenant demand. Being less than ten years old should also mean that maintenance costs in the shot to medium term would be minimal.

Given the asking price of £189,950 and the fact that a very similar property, also in Turnpike Court has recently achieved £775 PCM the annual yield would be respectable at 4.89%

Click HERE to view the full details on rightmove.

West Warminster Urban Extension Approved

The controversial West Warminster Urban Extension was given the stamp of approval in a meeting at County Hall on Wednesday evening.  The plan could see 1500 homes built and possibly even more over the next 25 years.

Initially the expectation was for 900 homes and earlier this month it was announced that a further 500 were being added, taking the plan total to 1400. However its reported that the initial 900 would be completed by 2026 and the additional 500 would be built from 2026 to 2033.

There are two applications submitted, one form Redrow Homes and one from Persimmon Homes. The application from Persimmon details 1200 dwellings and just over 200 in Redrows'.

Obviously a development of this magnitude has been met with concerns. The strain the development may put on West Street and Vicarage Street has been raised as this area is already congested.

Others have questioned how this development will impact on the secondary school in Warminster? The Persimmon plan details provision for a new primary school, but with about 1600 students at Kingdown School already, how many more students could be accommodated without the need for secondary expansion?

Ultimately there are many areas where clarification will undoubtedly be required, but the master plan has been accepted and the debating is sure to continue.

The Master Plan application details and documents can be found on the Wiltshire Council website HERE